2019 – OSCE Trends & Observations for The Fighting in Ukraine

The latest OSCE statistics for 2019. 
Much of the day-to-day firing and military actions in eastern Ukraine is linked to specific events. These can range from Russia’s forces wanting to provoke Ukrainian return fire for some new propaganda purpose (they do this every day), to localised tit-for-tat fire and the frequent targeting of enemy positions/bunkers used to fire from. With that said, these stats give us a good overall appreciation of what’s going on.

Without bias, they reveal it’s Russia’s sham republics forces (Russia’s forces), who month after month, consistently breach the Minsk agreement and hinder the OSCE. The vast majority of heavy weapons seen on/near the front line (Weapons in Violation) are in non-Ukraine Gov controlled areas. Most telling of all, the bulk of Freedom of Movement Restrictions, imposed on OSCE patrols, are also in non-Ukraine Gov held territory. Read Russia’s propaganda and you’d think the exact opposite was true, with the Ukrainian army out of control on the front line.

The Numbers.  
January to March 2019.
There was one new Re-commitment to ceasefire.
Ceasefire violations: 83,047. Firing incidents.
Explosions: 1,163. From Artillery, MLRS, tanks, mortars etc.
Weapons in Violation: 757. With 60% seen in non-Ukraine Gov held territory.
These are heavy weapons not withdrawn the set distance from front line, as dictated by the jointly agreed Minsk agreement. Artillery and tanks should be withdrawn 50km. For larger 100mm calibre artillery and Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) it’s 70km.
Freedom of Movement Restrictions: 199. With 86% by Russia’s forces.
This is when OSCE patrols get stopped from entering an area or told to leave one. Safe to say, they get stopped when those stopping them don’t want them to see something.

OSCE trends

April to June 2019.
As we can see, despite the recent ceasefire, the firing increased. Accordingly, we see an increase in weapons violations and restrictions placed on the OSCE.
Ceasefire violations: 85,483.
Explosions: 1,732.
Weapons in Violation: 1,269. With 80% seen in non-Ukraine Gov held territory.
Freedom of Movement Restrictions: 253. With 91% by Russia’s forces.

OSCE trends 1

July to Sept 2019.
There was one new Re-commitment to ceasefire.
With another new ceasefire in place, the number of firing incidents and explosions reduced. The increased Freedom of movement restrictions can be attributed to the daily reports of Russia’s forces – firing heavy weapons during the ceasefire, massively improving their front line positions and their military hardware/supplies entering Ukraine and moving around within it.
Ceasefire violations: 50,259.
Explosions: 244.
Weapons in Violation: 1,034. With 80% seen in non-Ukraine Gov held territory.
Freedom of Movement Restrictions: 293. With 92% by Russia’s forces.

OSCE trends 2

Written by Glasnost Gone

Just a British chap who doesn't like murdering dictators who go topless.
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