In Europe’s six-year war, June 2020 had a promising start, that is if you can call 6,850 firing incidents including 2,750 shell explosions promising. The totals mentioned above covered the period from June 1st to 14th, with the OSCE noting a 30% reduction in violations compared to the previous May fortnight. Unfortunately, the number of explosions rose by 100.
All change in the second half of June.
As so often happens, after a short lull, once again the firing usually increases.
June 15th to 28th saw a substantial rise in overall firing and shelling – about 8,700 ceasefire violations observed, including 4,700 explosions. That’s 2,000 more explosions.
OSCE state around 60% of all firing happened around the Zolote disengagement area in Ukraine’s Luhansk region. From my point of view, there’s no doubt that the creation of the small Zolote disengagement area has led to a deliberate and dramatic increase in Russia’s forces firing in this area. With that in mind, Ukraine needs to think long and hard before agreeing to establish any more disengagement areas. No use having peace and quiet in a small patch of land measuring just a few square kilometres, when shells are raining down daily all around it.
Total of 1 killed & 5 injured.
2020 total: 7 killed & 47 injured.
OSCE Freedom of Movement restrictions.
Total of 84 restrictions, all in Russia-led territory.
Restrictions relate to when soldiers refuse to allow OSCE patrols into an area or order them to leave a location. Link to OSCE Status Reports.
OSCE Report – June 15th to 28th.
OSCE Report – June 1st to 14th.