Ceasefire Update – Still Firing, but Much Quieter

Eastern Ukraine’s latest ceasefire started this week on July 27th. Goes without saying it was broken shortly after it commenced, but after numerous failed ceasefires, that’s what we’ve come to expect. But on the plus side, the firing has been limited.

Ukraine reports a number of small provocation firing instances from Russia-led forces, but nothing substantial. Mainly involve the firing of grenade launchers and some machine gun fire. Due to the lower level of firing, the Ukrainian army states it has yet to respond with counter fire. No Ukrainian casualties have been reported. Header image shows a Ukrainian soldier on July 29th.

Those conflict watchers amongst you will know that all previous ceasefires have failed after a few days and effectively get written off a few weeks later. With much of the Kremlin’s propaganda against Ukraine focussed on spreading disinformation claiming Ukraine’s the aggressor, it’s not hard to see why ceasefires soon fail. If the Ukrainian army isn’t firing, then it’s harder to spread fake news about it shelling civilians and houses. So, in an effort to prompt return fire, I suspect we’ll again see a gradual increase in firing from Russia-led forces, but in this case over a longer period of time.

Yesterday the OSCE posted their ceasefire stats for July 29th.
Encouragingly on the day, they only observed 1 ceasefire violation – an explosion near the Ukraine held city of Mariupol on the south coast. See the below ceasefire violation map. Not very often we see one with so few splashes of yellow. Link to report.

Since start of July 27th ceasefire.
OSCE have observed a total of 32 explosions & 90 small arms firing incidents.

a new stat 1
a new stat 2

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