Eastern Ukraine: Front Line Update

Those of you keeping an eye on front line events in eastern Ukraine, will be aware things are a little quieter. Less Russian lead heading west these days. Since the start of the July 27th ceasefire, the level of daily firing has substantially decreased. Most notably, the use of heavy weapons such as mortars is far less frequent.

Now for my usual “however” line.
Compared to 2019, it is indeed much quieter, but we’re still seeing daily on-going firing; much of it due to the use of lighter weapons such as grenade launchers (trying to land a grenade in a trench) and machine gun fire. We’ve also seen mortars, sniper activity and occasional 122mm artillery used. As seen below, last weekend the OSCE observed a large number of ceasefire violations, including almost 100 explosions. Worryingly, 74 of those explosions occurred in the Luhansk region, near the Zolote disengagement area (top yellow marker). This intensity of firing has not been seen here since the start of the July 27th ceasefire. Again as I always say, fingers crossed this was just a one off upsurge in tit for tat firing (he said hopefully).

So with 2020 almost gone, we’ll just have to wait and see what 2021 has in store for the several million Ukrainian civilians and soldiers living and fighting in Europe’s never ending war zone. With winter now kicking in, hopefully this will aid the curtailment of any fighting increases during the festive season.

OSCE map detailing where firing incidents took place. The red line marks the front line, with the Russian occupied area seen on the right.
Daily firing is continuing on the outskirts of occupied Donetsk city and on the Azov Sea coastline near Ukraine held Mariupol city.
OSCE ceasefire stats for last weekend. Most of them occurred over Fri evening and Sat, with Sunday relatively calm.
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