OSCE Disprove The Kremlin’s Propaganda

Currently, if you spent time listening to Russia’s rhetoric, you’d be forgiven for thinking Ukraine’s raining down hell and damnation upon the poor souls living in what is clearly Russian occupied Ukraine – that in an effort to kill defenseless civilians, the Ukrainian army has substantially increased its shelling. And lastly, Ukraine’s military forces are massing on the frontline, ready to launch an all-out apocalyptic style offensive.

The small matter of the total absence of evidence proving the above, tells us all Russia’s hysterical claims are false.

However what is true, is Russia spouting the exact same propaganda numerous times before. My May 2019 video seen below details the numerous embarrassing occasions in 2017 & 18, when the Russia-led republics in eastern Ukraine claimed the Ukrainian army was planning to launch “blitzkrieg” offensives, and they had “uncontestable” evidence to prove it. However, like the current crop of false claims, they also failed to present any credible evidence backing up their farfetched fake news and unsurprisingly no offensive happened.

So I’ll say it again for the record.
Despite the movement of large amounts of Russian hardware close to the Ukrainian border, I don’t think Russia ever planned to launch a new attack on Ukraine. To me the Kremlin’s sole aim is to hype up tensions, enable Putin to rattle his rusty sabre at Biden, and give it a more visible platform to attack Ukraine with fake news, false flags and made-up atrocities. After seven years of watching Russia’s disinformation it all smacks of recycled propaganda.

What’s currently happening on the frontline?
Both sides are firing at each other, but compared to 2020, the level of firing is not substantial. Yes this year we’ve seen occasional firing upsurges and no doubt we’ll see more of them, but that’s normal during any given year.

What’s the OSCE saying?
Everyday the OSCE put out a daily report detailing the number of ceasefire violations which occurred the previous day – this is firing by both sides. Recently, the number of violations are well below the totals seen during 2020. The OSCE reports back up the Ukrainian army daily reports, which don’t indicate substantial increases in Russia’s forces firing.

The below OSCE violation stats make it clear the recent firing is nothing to write home about and they shoot down (pun intended) the Kremlin’s hype of foul Ukrainian deeds on the frontline. Importantly, the number of explosions doesn’t indicate anything close to heavy shelling. Remember, the frontlines around 500km long and so 100+ firing violations means the vast majority of the frontline was silent.

Ceasefire violations observed on Monday April 12th.
Donetsk region: 40 including just 20 explosions.
Luhansk region: 2, both reported as explosions.
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Map showing where ceasefire violations (firing) took place along the frontline.
Graph comparing ceasefire violations to 7 and 30 day averages and 2020 daily average. As you can see the violations observed on April 12th (blue colour) were well below the average.

Ceasefire violations observed on Tuesday April 13th.
Donetsk region: 54 including just 13 explosions.
Luhansk region: No violations observed.
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Ceasefire violations observed on Wednesday April 14th.
Donetsk region: 118 including just 24 explosions.
Luhansk region: 13, all reported as explosions.
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